Exact’s recent survey on house prices showed that whilst some housing commentators are predicting that spring is just around the corner, mortgage brokers and IFAs have a more cautious and balanced view. Exact received 539 responses to its survey which is a statistically significant sample. The headline figures showed that on average house prices have a further 9.2% to fall and that the bottom of the market will occur in the next 6 to 12 months
I am slightly more pessimistic as I believe there is another 15% to come off the house price indicies and the bottom I agree is 6 to 12 months off. Also in the survey 445 respondents out of 539 said that they did not believe that the government’s ownership of banks would increase lending supply anytime soon, a view I share completely. Whatever green shoots are appearing the simple fact remains that unless people can get a mortgage, the housing market cannot recover.
More work needs to be done to stimulate appetite in the securitisation markets or we need to find a realistic alternative. However, if you take the more optimistic view from the facts and Exact’s research it would suggest that we are well past the halfway stage. The best result for all of us is that we get to the bottom quickly and experience a V shaped recovery rather than a more painful U shape recovery.
